PRESS RELEASE: Global temperature increases: an alarming scenario for the Baltic Sea

CCB • November 30, 2015

1 December 2015, Uppsala, Sweden

Global temperature increases: an alarming scenario for the Baltic Sea

Prior to the opening of the 2015 UN Conference on Climate Change , Coalition Clean Baltic (CCB) calls for immediate climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the Baltic Sea Region, based on the findings of a new CCB report released today.

The report presents alarming predicted consequences of temperature increase scenarios on Baltic Sea marine biodiversity. Estimated impact of a 4-degree C increase would represent a catastrophic scenario, resulting in adverse ecosystem changes for the Baltic Sea. Even a 2-degree increase impacts are so serious that policy actions must safeguard that this temperature level is never reached and only a maximum increase of less than 1.5 degrees should be set as acceptable.

Environmental changes in the Baltic Sea

Based on the IPPC indications of 2 to 4 degrees C increases within the period of 2100-2200, the CCB report indicates that human-induced warming will cause drastic changes at all trophic levels and components of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. In addition to increased temperature and sea level, sa­linity is expected to drop and so will the oxygen levels of deep-water areas. As a result, the biodiversity of the Baltic Sea will change and gradually diminish, including loss of important habitats and species, and decreases of many fish stocks. These changes will happen even during a status quo situation, and it is very unlikely that future ecosystems will be able to adapt unaided by human activities.

Policy recommendations

Duly taken, implemented and enforced mitigation measures will reduce the speed of change even though our knowledge of the full role of the ocean in climate is still lacking.

  • Direct climate change mitigation measures primarily include a phasing-out all fossil fuel emissions, and a phasing-in of a 100% renewable energy future with sustainable energy access for all.
  • Indirect climate change adaptation measures should focus a. on further reduction of nutrient losses and recycling of nutrients, regulating fisheries below Maximum Sustainable Yield and preserving a coherent network of Marine Protected Areas.

Baltic Sea countries should jointly take legally binding decisions so that the Baltic Sea region contributes to mitigation of the climate change environmental impacts, both regionally and globally.

The full version of compiled policy recommendations is available on the CCB website.

About Coalition Clean Baltic :

CCB is an environmental NGO network that unites 19 organizations from Belarus, Finland, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Ukraine and Sweden and represents over 1% of the Baltic Sea catchment population, as its members. The main goal of CCB is to promote the protection and improvement of the Baltic Sea environment and natural resources. Through its work CCB engages people to become part of the solution instead of part of the problem.

The study was performed with a co-funding provided by EU Life and AirClim Secretariat.

For more information, please contact: Life_logo

Mikhail Durkin, Coalition Clean Baltic,

+46 739 770 793 / mikhail.durkin@ccb.se / www.ccb.se

By CCB June 15, 2026
The European Commission's evaluation confirms what environmental NGOs across Europe have long argued: the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP)'s challenge is not its design, but its implementation.
By CCB June 10, 2026
The poor status and decline of many Baltic Sea fish populations have been thoroughly documented over several decades, indicating that the entire ecosystem is in great distress. So far, policy interventions have not reversed, or even halted, the negative trend concerning many of these populations. The European Commission itself recently recognised in its Common Fishery Policy (CFP) evaluation report that progress on stock rebuilding is lacking and the number of stocks “ threatened by collapse due to impaired recruitment has increased during the reporting period ”. Fish populations that once formed the cornerstone of the Baltic Sea fishery, such as the eastern and western Baltic cod and the western Baltic herring, are now doing so poorly that the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) is advising zero catch for these stocks. Yet, even with the targeted fishery being closed for some years now, none of these three stocks are showing sufficient signs of recovery. The condition (such as size and weight-at-age) of many flatfish populations, such as plaice, also raises alarm bells. The salmon spawning migration has fallen short of the target level in the past three years5. As a result, even the healthiest salmon stocks are now unlikely to produce enough smolts corresponding to sustainable levels in the coming years. To address the crisis facing Baltic populations and the broader ecosystem, political will and ambition to improve fisheries management, alongside full implementation of the CFP provisions, are needed. The recent INI report on the Baltic Sea Multi-Annual Plan shows that the European Parliament recognises the importance of ecosystem-based fisheries management as well as the need for consideration of environmental legislation when making decisions on fishing opportunities.6 Fisheries managers must now act swiftly and decisively on the commitment the Commission and Baltic Sea Member States made at last year’s October Agrifish Council to rebuild Baltic Sea stocks. This document presents the joint NGO recommendations regarding Baltic Sea fishing opportunities for 2027, prioritising long-term ecosystem health and sustainable fisheries management over short-term economic interests. The recommendations are based on the ICES advice, the objectives and requirements of the CFP8 and the Baltic Multiannual Plan (MAP), specifically to apply the precautionary approach and implement an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management, and the objective of achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Last year’s overarching joint Briefing Series on TAC-setting, co-signed by almost 30 organisations across the EU and the UK, including environmental NGOs, recreational fishers, and fishing rights owners, remains valid and provides further context, background and detailed explanations on the cross-cutting issues raised in this document. Read the Joint NGO recommendations on Baltic Sea fishing opportunities for 2027 here .